A Prime Example of Why News Time can Destroy an Otherwise Good Trade – and a Rundown of Tuesday’s

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A Prime Example of Why News Time can Destroy an Otherwise Good Trade – and a Rundown of Tuesday’s European Morning EUR/USD Trading

It’s a common theme in my blog to emphasize the importance of avoiding trades around news time. My recommendation is to avoid trading it completely, especially in the context of simple short-term up-down binary options. At many brokers, you may not even be able to get into a trade in the first place because they aren’t able to fill your order with the price of the market moving so fast.

Here is one such chart image image that occurred today on the GBP/JPY that can really emphasize the point:

Price was moving around the pivot level doing a whole lot of nothing. Maybe if you’re into trading pivot points you may have taken a trade on the candle directly before the news release at the pivot. This probably would have been a very mediocre trade anyway due to the fact that the congestion immediately under the level could easily act as support and the pivot wasn’t being well respected anyway with price moving around it in a serpentine fashion.

But then you get a news release that you didn’t expect and you just lost your trade by forty pips. (!) In today’s case, three main announcements were released at 4:30AM EST relevant to the Great Britain Pound (GBP), with GBP Official Reserves – measured relative to change from July (one month prior) – being the main factor leading the huge move.

Moral of the story? Always check your daily economic calendar! For trading European mornings, I prefer to use this one:

And I prefer to set the time zone of when news is released to the one my chart uses, which is Eastern Standard Time, to avoid any confusion as to when what data is being made available to the public.

And I do realize that there are many news releases. If you look at a calendar, there are several, and often spaced close together. But to avoid headache and confusion regarding when to avoid the market and when you’re safe, just understand that many affect the charts minimally. The main news points that you do need to heed carefully, however, are at 4:30AM and 8:30AM EST. This is usually when you’re getting these large price spikes like the very notable example I showed above.

So as always, be careful when it comes to news, because it’s no fun when a good trade set-up goes bad just because technical cues (support/resistance levels, price action patterns, etc.) go flying out the window when news of any note is released, as the market reacts to it instantaneously.

Anyway, on to today’s trading:

I took one trade today and it followed the basic form of my favorite kind of trade set-up. Any long-time readers might understand that my favorite kind of trades are those that follow the trend and come off retracements back to a support or resistance level. And, of course, with the same usual price action type behavior that gives me the green light to get into trades.

This one was slightly different, however, as price came down through the pivot point and through support 1. Ideally, when I take trades with a downtrend based on a retracement back up to a resistance level, I prefer that it touches a support level of note below it. This tells me that the sellers in the market are serious enough to push price down lower and the buying picks up steam only when the support level is reached. Because that’s simply what a support or resistance level is in a financial market – a supply/demand balance.

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When the down-move is cut short in the middle of a channel – that is, an area between two support/resistance levels – it may suggest that the selling pressure that you’d ideally want in the market isn’t as strong as you might like it. The market is basically saying that the down-move may not have the sustainability aspect in store if the buyers pop up in an area where it seems premature.

So I wouldn’t say this was a 10/10 set-up, but as long as you deem the probability of the trade working out in your favor, it’s worth it.

On the 4:00 candle, the downtrend discontinued and came up to touch the support 1 level of 1.34094. To better determine if support 1 would hold or be broken I waited to see what the 4:05 candle would bring. It touched the level, but formed a doji underneath. At this point, I felt pretty good about a put option here, so upon the touch of 1.34094 on the 4:10, I got into the trade and had a three-pip winner by expiration.

E&E News

PARIS AGREEMENT

Can the U.S. weaken its target? The answer may hinge on a word

Climatewire: Monday, May 1, 2020

The future of U.S. participation in the Paris Agreement may hinge on how the Trump White House reads a single sentence.

Sources briefed on Thursday’s White House meeting over whether America will remain a party to the landmark climate change accord said discussion broke down around conflicting interpretations of Article 4.11.

It reads: “A party may at any time adjust its existing nationally determined contribution [NDC] with a view to enhancing its level of ambition.”

So can the United States reduce its Paris Agreement promise to cut emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 and replace it with a laxer goal that better reflects President Trump’s agenda? Conservatives like Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) and corporate leaders urging Trump to remain in the global accord say yes. Hardline opponents who want Trump to deliver on his campaign promise to “cancel” the Paris deal insist that the only solution is to withdraw from the deal or risk damaging U.S. credibility by falling short of the pledge.

“Obama made a promise that is going to haunt Trump as long as he continues to honor that promise,” said Competitive Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Chris Horner.

Debate has swirled around the Paris Agreement since Trump took office. Factions have emerged, with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, advising the president to stay in, while U.S. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt and White House chief strategist Steve Bannon have urged him to pull out.

The issue is expected to be discussed today when Trump administration lawyers huddle to discuss the options, one person with knowledge of the meeting told E&E News. The “stay” faction appears to have gained traction recently inside the White House counsel’s office, headed by Don McGahn. But it relies heavily on the possibly problematic assumption that a country can revise its target — its NDC — downward.

Obama administration officials who helped craft the deal say weakening the target is indeed possible. Not only that, but it was intentionally constructed with that possibility in mind. And like so many things in the deal that saw every semicolon subject to hours of negotiation, the opening comes down to a single word: may.

Diplomats gathered at the suburban Paris airfield in 2020 weighed whether to try to include legal language requiring countries to increase ambition and never to backtrack. That objective would have required the “may” in Article 4.11 to be swapped for a “shall.” Some thought that requirement would help ensure that the world would reach the level of emissions reductions that could deliver the long-term goal of keeping warming to safe levels.

Todd Stern, the former U.S. special envoy for climate change, said that idea was deliberately rejected. “We did not want to foreclose this,” he said.

The U.S. position in those talks, which won out, “was that that was a good prescription for countries to lowball what they were going to do in their targets out of a fear that if circumstances came up that were difficult, they would nonetheless be stuck — that there was nothing they could do,” Stern said.

It had happened before. Japan lowered its 2020 emissions reduction pledge in 2020 after shuttering nuclear capacity in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster four years earlier. And while that led to pushback from some quarters, Japan stayed a part of the process.

“The negotiators who wrote this language were completely capable of writing language that said, ‘And the party may not go backward,'” said Stern. “But it doesn’t say that. And it doesn’t say that on purpose.”

Sue Biniaz, a longtime senior U.S. climate negotiator who recently left the State Department, was directly involved in the design of Article 4.11.

“There shouldn’t be any doubt about the Agreement on this point,” she said in an email to E&E News. “Targets are nationally determined, and a party can change its target even after it has been submitted. While Parties are encouraged to make changes in the more ambitious direction, there is no prohibition on changing in the other direction.”

Far from barring parties from ratcheting down the stringency of their targets, the sentence was aimed at encouraging those that had offered pledges to Paris that were based on 2030 reduction targets to revise them early, said Stern.

“The bottom line is this: If the administration sets out to renegotiate Paris and either cannot do so or fails to achieve the objective they have in mind, they can always opt out at that point,” said Scott Segal of Bracewell LLP. “Nothing is risked by trying to get a better deal at the outset.”

Environmental groups have blasted pro-Paris members of Trump’s team for floating the idea of a laxer target, and other countries are considered likely to push back strenuously if it happens. But another member of the Obama-era State Department climate team said the Trump team should revise its target to preserve the integrity and transparency of the U.N. process. The president has already terminated many Obama-era policies like U.S. EPA’s Clean Power Plan that would have made progress toward the 26 to 28 percent pledge.

CEI Senior Fellow Myron Ebell said he believes the language is clear and that it binds countries to their promise. If U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change officials agree that Article 4.11 does not bar countries from weakening their commitments, he said, they should come forward and say it before Trump makes up his mind.

“If people really believe that who are involved in it, then I would expect that they will be in the next few days making public attestations of that understanding, because otherwise, the remainders are going to lose the argument,” he said.

A UNFCCC spokesman said the Trump administration has not asked the body to clarify the language.

But Stern said U.N. bodies aren’t the final word on the meaning of U.N. agreement language the way the U.S. Supreme Court is for American law.

“Parties always have to hash that stuff out,” he said. “There’s nobody who opines on that.”

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U.S. Dollar Turn or Burn: EUR/USD, USD/JPY Primed

– This week’s economic docket is a bit lighter than the previous few weeks, and this makes for an interesting backdrop in which trends can substantiate themselves as we move deeper into Q4.

– Of particular interest at this early stage of the quarter is the potential for a larger recovery in the U.S. Dollar. USD is working off of a key area of resistance; will bulls show-up at higher-lows for another re-test?

– DailyFX Q4 Forecasts have just been released – Click Here for Full Access .

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This week’s economic docket is relatively light, especially when compared to the outlays of the past few weeks. This can be an opportune time for trends to substantiate as we move deeper into the fourth quarter of the year, and with a heavy tonality of Central Banker-speak on the wires this week, the potential for such drive certainly exists.

My colleague Christopher Vecchio previewed this week’s data earlier this morning, and that’s available in the article entitled, FX Markets Eye Commentary from BoJ and Fed; US Data in Focus . In this article, we’re going to look at three markets of particular interest as some of the more pressing themes currently showing in the FX market.

Dollar Turn or Dollar Burn?

Last week saw USD-strength continue into a very key zone of resistance that runs from 94.08-94.30 . This was the fourth consecutive week with the U.S. Dollar gaining value, and this is significant because that’s the first time that’s happened since February-March of this year, before the Fed began talking about balance sheet reduction.

As that topic of balance sheet reduction took over, markets grew skeptical that the Fed would be able to hike rates again this year. If the Fed is shifting their focus to tightening via the balance sheet, and if inflation is already sub-2%, there was little hope for near-term hikes, and this was a driving factor to the major sell-off that showed-up in the Greenback in the second and third quarter of the year. But at Chair Yellen’s speech two weeks ago, she indicated that the bank may not be looking to wait for inflation to tick above 2%, even while beginning to whittle the balance sheet down, and this gave USD strength another shot-in-the-arm.

The Dollar continued higher in the early portion of last week , until running into this key zone of resistance that runs from 94.08-94.30 on DXY, which continues to hold as we kick off this week.

U.S. Dollar via ‘DXY’ Daily: Current Resistance in Key Zone from 94.08-94.30

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This week’s economic docket offers a couple of potential drivers that could impact this trend. Wednesday brings FOMC meeting minutes from the September rate decision, and Friday brings CPI and Advance Retail Sales. All of which are high-impact prints, and each of which can bring fresh buyers or sellers into USD.

As we wrote in the Q4 forecast, one of the most positive aspects of the U.S. Dollar at the moment is just how negative this year has been . After falling by as much as -12.33% from the second trading day of the year into the September lows, there were few on the sidelines that wanted to sell that hadn’t yet already. This can make a market extremely vulnerable to ‘short squeeze’ scenarios, similar to what was seen in the Dollar in August, before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium drove another spate of weakness into USD.

At this stage, with price action threatening to break-above a very key zone of resistance, there is a very realistic possibility of a continued move-higher here, particularly as we see a short-heavy market get further squeezed by a persistently-hawkish Federal Reserve. On the four-hour chart below, we’re looking at the bullish structure that’s shown-up since early-September as a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. We’re also looking at that long-term zone of resistance cast atop price action, and if this resistance is going to hold, we should see those prior swing-lows taken out as the ‘bigger picture’ down-trend shows back-up. But – if we don’t get downside tests/breaks of these shorter-term higher-low support points, the prospect of bullish price action remains in USD.

U.S. Dollar via ‘DXY’ Four-Hour: Breaks of Higher-Low Support to Signal Return of Down-Trend

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Bulls on Break in EUR/USD; But When Might they Return?

Going along with that retracement in the U.S. Dollar’s 2020 down-trend has been a pullback in the previously uber-bullish trend in EUR/USD. As the Dollar was getting crushed for most of the year by markets expecting the Fed to be even-more dovish while rolling out balance sheet reduction, the Euro has been driven-higher by markets expecting the ECB to inevitably begin tapering their stimulus outlays.

At this point – we have no indication that the ECB is actually going to do this. We simply have the deduction that the current program is set to expire in December, the ECB has two meetings left in this year (October 26 th , and then December), and growth and inflation have begun to show with a bit more consistently in the bloc.

The ECB, for its part, has remained extremely evasive on the issue. When posed directly with the question of whether the ECB had discussed stimulus exit, Mario Draghi has continually deferred by saying that the bank hadn’t even talked about it. When this happened in April and June, those deferrals brought a couple of weeks of pause to the currency’s up-trend; but in July there was a far different response, and then at Mr. Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole – where he didn’t even touch the topic of monetary policy but instead spoke about the benefits of open borders –the Euro hurriedly ran above the 1.2000-figure as rate hike bets hit fever pitch.

But the psychological level of 1.2000 was unkind to Euro bulls, and after repeated attempts to sustain a topside break, EUR/USD sank below below and resisted the under-side of this level a few weeks ago, before pulling back to find a key zone of long-term support.

EUR/USD Four-Hour: Struggle to Sustain Above 1.2000, Pullback to Key Support Zone

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Since first re-arriving at that zone of support a week-and-a-half ago, Euro bulls have continually attempted to cauterize the lows but, at this point, have been unable to turn the tide of selling pressure as lower-highs continue to show. Prices finding support at the bottom of the zone last week, around 1.1685, before resisting at and then climbing above the top-side of the zone at 1.1736, are an encouraging first step for those looking to play a return of bullish price action in the pair. But an actual higher-high on the hourly chart would be a lot more convincing. On the chart below, we’re looking at recent swing-highs in EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Hourly: Return of Bullish Price Action on Hourly to Signal Return of Bulls Long-Term

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USD/JPY Builds into Range Atop Resistance

If we are sitting in-front of a grander move of USD-strength, the pair that will likely remain as one of the more attractive vehicles for such a theme would be USD/JPY, and we talked about this at length in last Thursday’s webinar, just ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls . While many Central Banks wrestle with the prospect of tighter policy options, that’s not really an issue of concern for the Bank of Japan, at least not currently. Inflation remains extremely weak, and with the BoJ headstrong towards their 2% target, which they likely won’t hit for at least a few years even under the most optimistic expectations, it doesn’t appear as though we’re going to hear the BoJ taking a step back anytime soon.

The one hindrance is just how much stimulus they’ve done so far, as the BoJ is acquiring significant market share of both Japanese Government Bonds and Japanese Exchange Traded Funds. But with little downside risk shown thus far, the BoJ doesn’t appear to be very moved by this risk; and after last month’s BoJ rate decision had a dissenting vote for even more stimulus , it doesn’t look as though we’re going to have to contend with higher rate expectations out of Japan anytime soon.

For its part, USD/JPY has been range-bound for the majority of 2020. Starting in April, USD/JPY began oscillating between support around 108.00 and resistance around 114.00. In the middle of this range is a key zone of longer-term support resistance that runs from 111.61-112.43.

USD/JPY Daily: Resist, Break, and then Support at Key Zone from 111.61-112.43

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Over the past week, a range has developed on top of that zone, with the prior point of resistance at 112.43 helping to set current support after a downside test around last week’s NFP report. For those looking at adding bullish exposure into the U.S. Dollar, this could be an interesting vehicle as the BoJ will likely remain as one of the more dovish Central Banks. The current setup in USD/JPY could be interesting with stops investigated below the prior swing low around 111.45, and targets cast towards range resistance of the shorter-term range at 113.25 and then the longer-term range around 114.00-114.50.

USD/JPY Hourly: Scaling-Higher Through Resistance, Short-Term Range Atop Key Zone

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley , Strategist for DailyFX.com

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