USDCHF Trading on August 8, 2013 45 ITM

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USD/CHF Trading on August 8, 2020: 4/5 ITM

I ended up finding and taking a trade right off the bat on the USD/CHF. The market had just formed an area of support at 0.92071 and was re-testing it again on the 2:25 (EST) candlestick. I took a call option at the re-touch of the level on the 2:30 candle and saw it progressively move in my favor. I thought I would start my morning out with a winning trade, but I turned out to be wrong. With just five minutes to go and up by nearly seven pips, I figured a winner would be had, especially considering that the hour is normally so tranquil in terms of market volume and movement. Nevertheless, the 2:40 (closing) candle fell hard through my entry point and I ended up with a two-pip loss.

As a result of the last trade, I figured the pair might be entering a downtrend for the morning. So I began considering 0.92071 for put options, as pullback trades to support or resistance going with the overall trend are my favorite trade set-ups. Price did continue down and hit a bottom of .091922 before retracing back up to 0.92071. Price went right through the level on its first touch before heading back through with similar fortitude on the next candle.

Even though in many cases I never take set-ups that don’t work out the way I want them to – i.e., rejecting the touch of the level and closing below – this one was an exception. Even though this wasn’t an entry cleanly at the price I had marked off (0.92071), I still had confidence in expecting the market to go back down at least temporarily. The USD had been losing ground against the CHF all morning and the market had retraced back up to a sensitive level in the market. So on the 4:00 candlestick, when price reached up to the high of the previous candle – 0.92084 – I took a put option. The market fell back below the resistance level of 0.92071 as I expected and I had a four-pip winning trade.

Price eventually did breach 0.92071 to the up-side before 5AM EST and went up to 0.92160. This level had also served as a resistance point just after 2AM. Afterward, the market came back down and formed a higher bottom at 0.92020. Consequently, I had both levels – 0.92160 and 0.92020 – considered as put option and call option set-up areas, respectively. Given that no daily pivot points or Fibonacci retracement lines were in play today to help me find places in the market to trade, I had to rely on the price data alone to make my trading decisions.

It actually took me over four hours before I was able to find my next set-up to trade. Price had meandered in that 15-pip channel during that time without re-testing either price level. The market did re-touch 0.92160 on the 8:25 candle. However, at 8:30 U.S. jobless claims data were to be released and it’s imperative that one always remains entirely mindful of any potential news announcements and remain out of short-term trades during those time periods. It’s essentially a 50-50 gamble, as technical cues often are not heeded during news time.

Nevertheless, when jobless claims were released, the number rose over the previous Thursday after a weaker than expected week for the U.S. labor market. As a result, since the number increased (and increasingly jobless-ness is bad), this was negative news for the U.S. economy and hence an expected drop in the USD was expected. Following that, I felt confident in keeping my plan to take a put option on the subsequent touch of 0.92160. The market was moving a bit quickly at this point so I actually got in the trade a couple pips lower than where I would have ideally wanted, but I still had a 13-pip winner by expiration. It turned out to be a very solid trade thanks to the increasing market volume in response to the jobless claims data. And again, I wasn’t trading the news here. I was simply trading my same technical strategy given fundamental factors were favorable toward my intended direction.

My next trade came back down at 0.92020. By this time, jobless claims data had been released twenty minutes ago. Usually, when important labor market news is released, the market breaks in one direction before recouping some of its losses or gains about 15-20 minutes after the announcement. In this case, the market was testing previous support, it was twenty minutes after the news release, and a “morning star” downtrend reversal pattern was forming to suggest a move back up. So on the 8:50 candle, at around 0.92020 near the candlestick’s open, I took a call option. This trade won by eight pips.

My final trade of the day came on the 9:05 candle. Price had come up and rejected 0.92160 once again on the 9:00 candlestick, validating its further use as a resistance level. So I took a put option at the touch of the 0.92160 on the following candle and had a nice, easy five-pip winner.

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. I check the forum regularly so I will always do my best to return anything directed my way as quickly as possible. Also, if there is any trading-related topic in particular that anyone would like me to write about, I would definitely consider fulfilling any requests.

Zombie Zone Trading

Comments

Aug 09, 14:48:24 USD/JPY 96.316 96.299 Aug 09, 14:55:00 $10.00 74% $17.40 ITM

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In this trade, I saw a pullback setting up. I dropped down to the 1 min chart to watch for the best spot to enter. As soon as I saw a doji candle start to change into a red candle, I took the trade. I had a family emergency this morning, so I had the afternoon off today. I’m glad I had the chance to catch two winners.
Have a GREAT weekend!!

Here are 4 good trades I missed tonight. Right before 9, the %R touched the -50, but did not cross over it, so that was not a trade i would take. Between 7 and 10 pm EST is the hot zone for my system at night. I had a busy weekend with a sick spouse, and just did not get up in time this morning to trade. And by the time I got home from work, I saw these fine missed opportunities. I feel good, though, because 2 more trades, and my initial $20 will be over $100, and it will be Nadex time! I might leave a little money with Marketsworld, just in case I need a plan B.

Second trade of the morning. SAME STORY. ( except I was trying to time a pullback )

And here is the market laughing at me again.

Aug 13, 07:29:21 AUD/JPY 89.4765 89.4730 Aug 13, 07:35:00 $8.00 95% $15.60 ITM

This one aint pretty, but it is my only win for today. I was looking for a pullback and it just squeaked in there. I’m still just 3 trades away from switching to Nadex. No worries!

I’m really liking the AUD/JPY screenshots. I’m not that familiar with that pair, as I’ve never really traded it I don’t think, but the price action looks pretty smooth and obeys its support and resistance levels fairly well.

What broker(s) are you using for your trading, if I might ask?

Right now I trade binopts with MarketsWorld. I have a spot forex account with Oanda. But my main focus right now is reaching my $100 goal and opening a live account with Nadex.
As for AUD/JPY, it is a friendly pair to trade. I look at all the pairs offered by MW, except AUD/NZD. That one is trouble for me.

Right now I trade binopts with MarketsWorld. I have a spot forex account with Oanda. But my main focus right now is reaching my $100 goal and opening a live account with Nadex.
As for AUD/JPY, it is a friendly pair to trade. I look at all the pairs offered by MW, except AUD/NZD. That one is trouble for me.

I was actually thinking of doing a bit of trading with Markets World again. I don’t like variable pay-outs, but as long as I’m still able to average about 80% I’d be happy. That said, having the fixed 85% I’m getting with the USD/CHF on Trade Rush is nice at the moment.

I’m looking at a 5-minute AUD/NZD chart right now and that’s definitely not a pair I’d feel confident in trading. Way too much chop and random bursts of volatility. It just wouldn’t work very well with my personal style of trading.

Aug 14, 22:08:38 USD/CAD 1.03286 1.03227 Aug 14, 22:15:00 $10.00 75% $17.50 ITM

Wow, this is my favorite trade of the week, so far. My only regret is not taking a quick consecutive trade on the next candle.
What I saw here was the candle pushing on support, and a nice drop on the %R. I dropped down to the 1 minute chart, and it was bleeding with a big red candle, so I knew the 5 min would close under support. I didn’t know it would start such a strong downtrend. I’m at $70.14. Almost Nadex time!

I took this trade today when %R crossed below the -50, price broke down through support, AND the candles crossed under the 6EMA. The 6EMA was also angled down. I noticed that the other two EMA’s are good for overall trend direction, but I only need to pay attention to the 6EMA for a trading signal to coincide with the %R crossing the -50. I do not need to wait for the candles to cross all three EMA’s.

Aug 15, 07:24:52 USD/JPY 98.106 98.088 Aug 15, 07:30:00 $14.00 75% $24.50 ITM

Aug 16, 06:57:06 EUR/USD 1.33380 1.33366 Aug 16, 07:05:00 $15.00 75% $26.25 ITM

Ending the week with a winner. The %R crossed down at a sharp angle, and the 6EMA was angled down. Obviously, my trades on the 5 min chart are quick hitters. Get in and get out. Nothing long term here, as price is starting to range. If I could just get myself out of bed earlier, I could start getting 3 or 4 trades a day, and really boost my progress!!

Aug 16, 06:57:06 EUR/USD 1.33380 1.33366 Aug 16, 07:05:00 $15.00 75% $26.25 ITM

Ending the week with a winner. The %R crossed down at a sharp angle, and the 6EMA was angled down. Obviously, my trades on the 5 min chart are quick hitters. Get in and get out. Nothing long term here, as price is starting to range. If I could just get myself out of bed earlier, I could start getting 3 or 4 trades a day, and really boost my progress!!

Lol, I know this feeling. This summer, though, I’ve actually been doing my trading before I go to bed and ending my trading session whenever I start to become fatigued or if the market I’m watching just isn’t looking favorable to trade set-ups.

Also, I gave you a bit of a shout-out in the first sentence of my August 15 blog article, with your thread here encouraging me to do some AUD/JPY trading.

Aug 19, 07:24:57 USD/JPY 98.028 97.985 Aug 19, 07:30:00 $18.00 70% $30.60 OTM

I forgot to save this image this morning, so ignore the actual price indicated now. This is my really poor trade decision. I thought it was going to break up through resistance, and I jumped in, and the resistance resisted. So, tues, it’s back to basics. %R, 6 EMA at an angle, and S/R levels. Ignore the 60 SMA. I have that on there for longer term trades I am trying out on a Nadex demo account.

4/4 , just under break even after 8 trades. I discovered that I like looking for support/resistance breaks on the 60 sec charts. I noticed the success everyone is having on the message boards, I figured I should learn,too. MW does not have 60 sec expiry times, but the little reversals and line breaks seem to run a good 6-7 candles in your favor, so my 6 minute expiry times seem to be ok and winning for now.
So, here’s my charts.

Aug 20, 06:19:19 AUD/JPY 88.1190 88.1145 Aug 20, 06:25:00 $12.00 70% $20.40 ITM

Aug 20, 07:54:34 AUD/JPY 88.1520 88.1205 Aug 20, 08:00:00 $10.00 75% $17.50 ITM

Aug 20, 22:09:50 USD/JPY 97.214 97.210 Aug 20, 22:15:00 $10.00 76% $17.60 ITM

Aug 20, 22:24:12 USD/JPY 97.250 97.193 Aug 20, 22:30:00 $10.00 95% $19.50 ITM

And here’s my OTMs.

Aug 20, 06:44:54 EUR/USD 1.33936 1.33958 Aug 20, 06:50:00 $13.00 75% $22.75 OTM

Aug 20, 07:13:28 USD/JPY 97.316 97.259 Aug 20, 07:20:00 $13.00 70% $22.10 OTM

Aug 20, 21:39:03 EUR/USD 1.34200 1.34208 Aug 20, 21:45:00 $10.00 75% $17.50 OTM

Aug 20, 22:44:42 USD/CAD 1.04155 1.04200 Aug 20, 22:50:00 $10.00 70% $17.00 otm
No excuse for this one. Just sloppy that I did not pay attention to the price being above the 60 SMA. I was using the 60 SMA for a longer term strategy , but I started to notice the 60 sec price will respect it many times, so I will start using it for a trend direction, and trade with the trend.

I went 5 out of 8 today. I think the most frustrating thing that happened was that 2 out of the 3 losers were times when I tried to cheat a little extra leverage into my trade size, and they ended up losing!! That’s what I get for being impatient with my progress.

Aug 21, 06:28:04 EUR/USD 1.33943 1.33939 Aug 21, 06:35:00 $10.00 65% $16.50 ITM

Hi buddy I see that you have some good trades with your system. What timeframe do you use?
I notice this chart and I think you could filter some of your signals with something like this.

Aug 19, 07:24:57 USD/JPY 98.028 97.985 Aug 19, 07:30:00 $18.00 70% $30.60 OTM

I forgot to save this image this morning, so ignore the actual price indicated now. This is my really poor trade decision. I thought it was going to break up through resistance, and I jumped in, and the resistance resisted. So, tues, it’s back to basics. %R, 6 EMA at an angle, and S/R levels. Ignore the 60 SMA. I have that on there for longer term trades I am trying out on a Nadex demo account.

You did have the trend going in your favor on that one, but if anything, a put option would’ve been more reasonable there due to the resistance that had formed. Also try to keep tabs on whole numbers in the market. The 98.00 level likely served as resistance due to the whole number itself. And, in general, it’s really tough to win call option trades when resistance is immediately above your entry (and the same thing regarding put options with support immediately underneath).

But overall, your trading is looking good and it seems like you’ve got a pretty good system in place.

Zombie Zone Trading

Comments

Thursday morning was a lot calmer than yesterday. I went 2 for 2 ITM’s. Short and sweet.
I forgot, I am on a new laptop, my wife is using my old one where I saved the screen shots. I will post them tomorrow.

Aug 22, 07:04:22 USD/JPY 98.661  98.620 Aug 22, 07:10:00 $10.00 75% $17.50 ➕
Aug 22, 06:58:42 AUD/USD 0.89872  0.89889 Aug 22, 07:05:00 $10.00 70% $17.00 ➕

Hi buddy I see that you have some good trades with your system. What timeframe do you use?
I notice this chart and I think you could filter some of your signals with something like this.

Thanks Kostasze. I started this thread using the 5 min charts, but this week I switched to trading from the 1 min charts. MarketsWorld does not have 60 sec options, so timing is critical.

As mentioned above,here are my screenshots from Thurs AM. I had 2 winners.

We are moving today, so I am not 100% focused on trading. As you will see, I started off with two OTMs, but ended my little session with one ITM.

Aug 23, 06:24:02 USD/JPY 98.901 98.956 Aug 23, 06:30:00 $10.00 78% $17.80 OTM
I jumped into this trade, not fully awake. There was a WHOLE NUMBER providing support at 98.900. I noticed this after I placed the trade. I just turned on the laptop and started shooting. Mistake #1.

Aug 23, 07:14:20 AUD/USD 0.89957 0.89909 Aug 23, 07:20:00 $10.00 77% $17.70 ITM

I took a few minutes and just listened to Bloomberg. Cleared my head, and took this beauty.
Have a great weekend!

Thank you both for the guidance. I totally missed that resistance against a whole number! Ugh, I get caught up and forget some of the lessons from the past. And then, the weak retracement caught me swinging because the %R started to dangle over the -50 line. But right after I entered the trade, it pulled back, and the red candle turned green, and climbed up and up. I need to watch retracements a lot more, AND wait for the %R to stay across the -50 line until the candle closes. I am going to start studying Fibbonacci as well.
Again, thank you both for the insight!

Whole number levels are really easy to miss if you’re paying attention to just the chart instead of the actual price itself. Whole numbers are something to look out for, but they should never, of course, be the foundation for a trade in and of themselves.

Adding some Fibonacci lines to your chart would be great, as many traders use these. I like to draw mine on the weekly and monthly charting timeframes, as these levels tend to be the most robust. However, if there is a conspicuous price movement on a smaller timeframe, I will occasionally draw that one in. For my USD/CHF trading from a few weeks ago, I had Fib retracements drawn in on the hourly chart and had some good trades set up at those levels. But all in all, I don’t get a ton of binary trades off the Fib levels, given I go for mainly the most important, longer timeframe ones. Hence, they don’t pop up that often, but can offer some very solid trades if they do.

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